XRP has bounced with the rest of the crypto market, but that rebound is exactly what analyst CasiTrades is warning traders not to misread. The cryptocurreny has just come off a little bounce above $1.35, but technical analysis shows that the setup can be more dangerous than it looks.
CasiTrades’ rationale is that this is not a true change in structure yet, but another move inside a larger bearish pattern that has still not been invalidated.
This Bounce Could Be A Trap
According to the chart shared with the analysis, XRP is shown pushing into resistance in a completed five-wave move. The analyst paired that with bearish divergence on the RSI, where the momentum ticked higher even as price failed to produce a stronger breakout. As it stands, the RSI is pressing near the upper end of its recent range, which supports an idea of a bearish reversal proposed by CasiTrades.
The idea from the analyst is that the latest strength may be more exhaustion. There have been bullish candlesticks on the hourly timeframes over the past few days, but according to the analyst, this is exactly where traders get caught. Despite the green candlestick, the XRP price is yet to make a new high above $1.4. Instead, the five-wave move mentioned above is starting to meet resistance.
A fast rebound can feel like the start of a reversal, especially when price snaps back into the same zone that recently rejected it. However, without a new high, nothing has changed. This is still just noise inside the same larger pattern.
The Price Levels That Matter Most
The basis of this analysis is a warning that the XRP price is still going to reverse into another extended crash that eventually brings it below $1. According to CasiTrades, XRP is still trading right between support and resistance, and multiple degrees are aligning to the downside.
The chart lays out a very specific roadmap of the price levels that matter most on the way down. The first downside target is at $1.13, which CasiTrades treats as the initial leg lower once the current noise clears out. This would mark a return to XRP’s price bottom during the early February crash.
The projection allows for a short relief bounce after touching $1.13 before another move into the macro 0.786 support around $1.08. The final leg in the bearish sequence is a projected break below $1 and into the 0.854 support zone around $0.87. This move would be the end of a larger corrective impulse wave 2.
The bearish case does not remain valid forever. CasiTrades makes that clear by pointing to the 0.618 zone overhead as the level bulls need to reclaim and flip into support. That target is around $1.40.
Featured image from Getty Images, chart from Tradingview.com
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